THE RELLIC TRADE ROOM

NEW YORK — U.S. equity futures edged higher Tuesday morning, signaling tentative stabilization after Monday’s sharp repricing across technology and pharmaceutical names. Investors are navigating a crosscurrent of earnings surprises, geopolitical trade recalibration, and a structural reassessment of AI-driven valuations.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%, the S&P 500 added 0.2%, and Nasdaq-100 contracts advanced 0.3% in early trading. The rebound follows a broad sell-off sparked by concerns over AI disruption and the formal implementation of a sweeping 10% global U.S. tariff framework.

Markets are attempting to regain footing after a volatility spike that disproportionately punished high-multiple growth names. While Monday’s session reflected fear-driven de-risking, Tuesday’s tone suggests measured reallocation rather than wholesale retreat.

Capital continues flowing out of mega-cap technology into sectors tied more closely to the “real economy.” Institutional desks report increased positioning in energy, industrials, and consumer defensives.

Names drawing inflows include:

• Caterpillar — Leveraged to infrastructure and global capital expenditure cycles.
   
• Walmart — Defensive retail positioning amid tariff uncertainty.
   
• Exxon Mobil — Beneficiary of resilient energy pricing and geopolitical supply adjustments.
   

The shift underscores a growing institutional thesis: resilience and cash flow durability now command a premium over speculative AI-linked upside.

Shares climbed 4% in pre-market trading after the company delivered stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter results and issued constructive fiscal 2026 guidance. The report provided an early stabilizer for the Dow, reinforcing demand trends in home improvement and pro-contractor channels.

The pharmaceutical giant plunged approximately 16% after its obesity candidate CagriSema failed to demonstrate non-inferiority against Eli Lilly’s Zepbound in a pivotal Phase 3 trial. Major brokerages have already downgraded the stock, citing competitive risk and pipeline uncertainty.

Shares advanced nearly 6% amid reports of potential acquisition interest. Analysts also point to valuation compression that may make the payments platform attractive to strategic buyers.

Though trading modestly lower in the near term, bullish analysts project significant upside through 2026, citing sold-out high-bandwidth memory (HBM) supply tied to AI infrastructure demand.

Despite broader software weakness, Wall Street maintains a constructive stance. The company’s monetization of agentic AI workflows and a $5 billion buyback authorization reinforce long-term confidence.

TickerAction/RatingRationaleBarrick Gold (GOLD)Strong Buy12-week gain of +104.88%; strong earnings momentum amid commodity tailwinds.IBM (IBM)Avoid/SellDown 13% yesterday on fears of intensified AI competition. NVIDIA (NVDA)WatchReporting Q4 results tomorrow — a critical bellwether for AI sentiment. Bloom Energy (BE)MomentumSurged 8.6% after strong Q4 earnings and forward guidance.  

Today’s session is less about recovery and more about recalibration.

The AI trade is no longer a one-directional narrative. Earnings execution, capital discipline, and geopolitical insulation are becoming central screening factors for institutional allocators.

With Nvidia’s results looming, the market faces a near-term catalyst that could either reignite growth momentum or accelerate the rotation into cyclicals and defensives.

For now, the message from capital markets is clear:
Speculation is being repriced. Cash flow is being rewarded.

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The Rellic Trade Room
Where Strategy Meets Structure.